Who’s who in Ecuador’s presidential race?
Ecuadorians will cast their ballots for a new president on 20 August in a snap general election, which President Guillermo Lasso called for in May. The most likely scenario is that the two most-voted candidates in this round will compete in an October runoff vote. Poll aggregator shows that the best-positioned candidate currently is Luisa González, the protegé of former leftist president Rafael Correa. If the poll aggregator is correct, we can expect the electorate to choose a second candidate from several individuals competing in a crowded race. Southern Pulse breaks down González and her main competitors below.
On 20 August, Ecuador will vote for its next president. The election will be decided in one round if any candidate achieves 40% of the vote, with a difference of at least 10% over the second-most-voted candidate. However, the most likely scenario is that a second round will take place later this year, on 15 October, between the two most-voted candidates this Sunday.
Poll aggregator Cálculo Electoral estimates a 72% chance that the election will advance toward a runoff vote on 15 October. Cálculo Electoral suggests that González will most likely face one of three candidates: Jan Topic, a newcomer focused on law and order; Otto Sonnenholzner, a technocrat; and Yaku Perez, a left-wing indigenous leader. However, given the disparity among polls, it is not possible to rule out other scenarios.
In addition to disparate results, another factor adds uncertainty as the vote approaches. Ecuadorian law prohibits polling data from being released 10 days before the election date, and the share of undecided voters was about 30% before the 10th of August. Furthermore, it is unclear how the assassination of former presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio — an anti-corruption champion — could affect the vote.
Here are the main presidential candidates.
Luisa González
Party: Revolución Ciudadana (RC) | Left-wing
Background: González is the protegé of former President Rafael Correa, who governed between 2007 and 2017.
She comes from a family of socially conservative politicians from the Manabi province. Her mother was affiliated to the right-wing Social Christian Party and her uncle was a personal secretary for the conservative president Gustavo Noboa, who governed from 2000 to 2003. Gonzalez held several positions during the Correa administrations, with the most visible being the president’s chief of staff. Between 2021 and 2023, Gonzalez served as a Congressional lawmaker known for her pro-life stance on abortion.
Correa’s popularity during his presidential term bodes well for González, as rising export prices at the time yielded a booming economic cycle. As a result, his government spent substantial amounts of public money on social policies and infrastructure works. Until recently, about 30% of the population supported Correa’s RC party.
However, Correa’s popularity has eroded since he was found guilty of corruption in 2020. Correa now lives in Belgium because he would be arrested if he returns to Ecuador after his conviction. Gonzalez and Correa say the trial was politically motivated. In the case that González wins, Correa is expected to be a major influence on her administration. However, González said in interviews that if she becomes president she would not pardon Correa. If that remains true, Correa is not expected to return to Ecuador.
Strengths: The RC is the only well-organized party in the entire country. It controls the highest number of provincial administrations, governing over 28% of the population countrywide, including the three largest metropolitan areas of Guayaquil, Quito and Cuenca. Also, Correa is still a popular figure, especially in lower income areas, thanks to the legacy of his administration.
Weaknesses: González faces challenges after Correa’s corruption cases. Anti-Correa sentiment related to corruption cost the RC the 2021 election, which President Guillermo Lasso won in a runoff vote.
Impact on business: Correa’s party, like much of the developmentalist left in Latin America, sees extractive projects as a way of financing greater public spending. For example, González is in favor of continuing oil exploration in the Yasuni National Park in the Ecuadorian Amazon, a project that has been widely criticized by environmentalists and indigenous communities.
Jan Topic
Party: Social Christian Party | Right-wing
Background: Topic presents himself as the tough-on-crime candidate. According to local media, he owns telecommunications, real estate and private security companies. He is a dual citizen of Ecuador and France, having fought for the French Foreign Legion in Africa, Syria and Ukraine. His critics call him a mercenary, which he denies.
Jan Topic is the son of Tomislav Topic, owner of the Telconet company, a market leader in Ecuador. The candidate’s father Tomisalav maintained a business relationship with the family of former vice president Jorge Glas, a Correa supporter imprisoned for corruption. In 2019, Topic’s father had to return USD13.5 million to public coffers as part of a bribery case involving the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht. That company had many projects in Ecuador while Correa was president.
In April 2023, local media outlets reported that Jan Topic would be appointed as Lasso’s public security minister. Topic presented a security plan to the president, but the nomination did not move forward.
Strengths: Topic centered his campaign’s narrative about growing violence, the electorate’s main concern. Furthermore, his key message may resonate even more amid public fear following the assassination of former presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio.
Topic has done a good job of increasing his profile on social media. Additionally, he is a new face instead of a traditional politician, a plus in a country where a Cedatos survey shows a high degree of discontent with politicians. In May, 83% of respondents said that they approved snap elections, further suggesting dissatisfaction and a demand for newcomers in politics. This citizen distrust of political and business leaders is common across the region, with rare exceptions.
Weaknesses: As it is the first time Topic is running for office, few Ecuadorians know him. Making Topic’s brand more recognizable to the wider public certainly consumed much of the campaign’s resources. However, this weakness can be addressed by a savvy marketing team. In a run-off scenario, Topic would have more media exposure and this weakness would likely become irrelevant.
Impact on business: Topic is a son of Guayaquil’s elite and has a pro-business profile. Topic may try to make regulatory changes by reducing bureaucracy, but could face resistance in Congress. The risk associated with all Ecuadorian presidential candidates, with the exception of González, is the lack of political support from Congress. Also in the realm of political support, social unrest led by indigenous confederation CONAIE is significantly more likely under a right-wing presidency. CONAIE led nationwide protests during the last two presidential terms, disturbing supply chains in the country. Another possible impact on business is security: if a policy of confronting criminal groups is carried out without a comprehensive strategy, this could mean an even greater increase in violence, with negative impacts on business.
Yaku Pérez
Party: Somos Agua | Left-wing, environmentalist
Background: Yaku Pérez is a member of the Kichwa nation, the largest indigenous group in the country. He is also a lawyer and an anti-mining activist who defends water resources.
Pérez governed the Azuay province for a year and a half between 2019 and 2020. In 2021, he ran for president. He ended up short of the second round by 0.35% of distance from the second-place candidate and alleged that there had been electoral fraud.
Pérez was formerly a member of the Pachakutik indigenous party, the political arm of the indigenous confederation CONAIE. Pérez was imprisoned during Correa’s term. The government accused him of “terrorrism” for protesting against mining projects. His French-Brazilian wife, Manuela Picq, was expelled from the country at that time. Now, Picq is Pérez’s campaign manager.
Pérez gained traction in 2021 among young urban voters and indigenous communities due to his environmentalist stance. However, he lacks a clear platform on how to curb crime.
Strengths: Pérez has no credible accusations of corruption at this time, and his ethnic background especially resonates with lower-class Ecuadorians.
Weaknesses: Pérez faces a setback because CONAIE is not formally supporting any candidate in these snap elections. CONAIE does have factions, including its president Leonidas Iza with ties to former president Correa. Pérez also has not presented a concrete vision for improving the country’s security problems, which is the most pressing issue for most Ecuadorians.
Impact on business: Pérez is seen as a radical in pro-business circles. The most likely scenario after his election is an increase in country sovereign risk and a fall in the local stock market. Investors could adopt a wait-and-see stance on the new government’s positions on extractive projects, taxes and fiscal policy. Even if Pérez has a moderate Finance Minister, it is likely that there would be permanent tension between the government and investors, particularly in the mining sector. Pérez will need the expected revenue from mining, as oil production is expected to begin to decrease in the coming years. How he navigates the reality of these two extractive powerhouses will likely determine broader investor posture towards the country.
Otto Sonnenholzner
Party: Avanza | Centrist
Background: Otto Sonnenholzner has a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard University, and presents himself as a tough-on-crime technocrat. He calls for increasing legal protections for police officers who kill people during operations, allowing Ecuadorian nationals to face trials abroad in Ecuadorian consulates and investing in technology to fight crime.
His family owns a large shrimp company and the Tropicana radio station in Guayaquil, where he used to be a program host and general manager. He was president of the Ecuadorian Association of Radio Broadcasting in Guayas province. He has businesses in the real estate and mining sectors.
His only position in politics was a short stint as vice president under former president Lenin Moreno for 18 months between 2018 and 2020, in which he led the government’s efforts to address the pandemic.
Strengths: Sonnenholzner hopes to win over a highly-polarized electorate divided by Correa’s supporters and detractors. To do this, he is especially focused on the economy and security — two issues especially relevant to voters.
Weaknesses: Sonnenholzner’s adversaries often mention his previous role within the unpopular Moreno administration, which is associated with the pandemic and CONAIE-led mass protests.
Impact on business: The opportunities for the business community and the associated risks of a Sonnenholzer presidency are similar to those of Topic. Both candidates have similar profiles in terms of political support in Congress and social background. In our opinion, a Sonnenholzer win would be the best outcome for foreign companies operating in Ecuador.
Xavier Hervas
Party: RETO | Center-right
Background: Xavier Hervas is a businessman and the son of Ecuador’s former ambassador to the Organization of American States. Hervas’ business exports frozen foods to the US, Europe and Asia. He also owns companies in the agricultural equipment and transportation sectors. His first business was a bakery in Quito.
Hervas ran for the 2021 presidential elections as a new face for the center-left Izquierda Democrática party. He received 16% of votes, after being virtually a complete unknown face for Ecuadorians at the beginning of the campaign trail. He also ran a successful campaign on social networks, mainly Tik Tok. Today, he is running for another minor party with no ideological identity.
Weaknesses: The lack of identity of Hervas’ candidacy could hold him back. Hervas bets on being a technocrat, but he will compete with Sonnenholzner on that platform. Also, the latter candidate has managed to position himself more clearly within the public debate over security.
Impact on business: According to the poll aggregator, it is unlikely that Hervas will make it to the run-off. In the event of his presidency, Hervas would be a market-friendly president. As for political risk impacting businesses, lack of parliamentary support and CONAIE’s opposition could be destabilizing factors. Hervas picked for vice president in his ticker an indigenous doctor, whose husband is a member of CONAIE. That connection could be used to facilitate talks with indigenous leaders.
Daniel Noboa
Party: ADN | Right-wing
Background: At 35, Noboa is the youngest candidate and comes from one of the richest families in the country. He is the son of tycoon Alvaro Noboa Pontón, the main heir of the Corporación Noboa banana conglomerate. His father unsuccessfully tried to become president three times, in 1998, 2002 and 2006.
Noboa was a national congressman between 2021 and 2023. He created an Inter-Parliamentary Friendship Group between Ecuador and Russia. The group made a trip to Moscow in 2022, during the war with Ukraine. Russia reportedly remains one of the main export markets for the Noboa family’s banana business.
Weaknesses: Based on polling data, Noboa lags far behind other competitors. He had a good showing in the election’s only televised debate, but it is unlikely that he would make it to the runoff election.
Impact on business: Noboa would be pro-business, but his relationship with Russia, if it continues, would likely raise red flags among Western businesses and investors in Ecuador. Lack of political support in Congress and likely opposition of CONAIE would increase the risk of political and social instability, which could impact business activity.
Christian Zurita
Party: Movimiento Construye | Centrist
Background: Zurita is the replacement for former candidate Fernando Villavicencio, who was assassinated by a hitman in Quito after a rally on 9 August. The crime remains unsolved. However, local media outlets have reported that the hitman was sent by Los Choneros, the country’s largest criminal group and allegedly a local affiliate of Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel.
Like Villavicencio, Zurita is an investigative reporter. He has reported on corruption by Correa’s government and his family. Correa sued both Zurita and Villavicencio. Correa was found guilty by the Ecuadorian justice system in that case.
Voting in Ecuador is done on paper ballots, which have already been printed. Thus, Villavicencio’s face will appear for the voters next Sunday. There are no polls that measure the degree of public knowledge of Zurita, and to what extent he would capture the votes that would have gone to Villavicencio.
Strengths: Zurita can only win if enough voters support his candidacy as a sign of public outcry due to Villavicencio’s assassination.
Weaknesses: He is not known to most people in the country and there is no polling data about the level of public support for him.
Impact on business: Zurita is pro-business but anti-corruption, which may cause tension within some parts of the business community. Lack of congressional support could be an additional political risk.
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