Vicente Zambada Niebla “El Mayito” returns to Mexico: Implications for businesses in NW Mexico

Why it Matters:

The return of Vicente Zambada Niebla aka “El Mayito” represents increased risk for businesses operating primarily in Durango at this time. El Mayito has been seen in Central Durango after being released from US custody and has been in touch with plaza bosses throughout the state with whom he has indicated a desire to take over “everything” and his need for additional resources.

Summary

Vicente Zambada Niebla aka “El Mayito” was released from US custody after serving less than three years in prison. He has recently been seen in Mexico and reportedly will take over as second in command for the Sinaloa Cartel (CdS) faction led by his father, Ismael Zambada aka “El Mayo.”

El Mayito is known among Sinaloa cartel members, including José Luís Cabrera Sarabia, and locals as somewhat irrational, and aggressive. El Mayito reportedly may begin to demand more financially from lower echelons of the CdS in Durango in an effort to bolster their battle against Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) in Zacatecas, as well as the potential impending fight they will have with the CdS faction led by Los Chapitos.

This financial pressure will inevitably affect businesses across NW Mexico in areas controlled by the Sinaloa cartel, but we anticipate it will be particularly prevalent in Durango based on sourcing that indicates El Mayito has been seen in central Durango over the past few weeks.

Discussion

El Mayito’s reputation and business relationships.

• Sources indicate that El Mayito has been asking around in Durango about the status of CdS relationships with mines throughout the state.
• He has been seen throughout central Durango and is reportedly slowly becoming involved in the offensive launched against CJNG in Zacatecas. CdS head in Durango, José Luís Cabrera Sarabia, is reportedly still leading the CdS in the conflict in Zacatecas.
• The logging industry is another area where CdS maintains significant interests in the state and also intends to expand, according to sources.
• El Mayito has reportedly directly told a CdS plaza boss in NE Durango that he’s interested in “dominating everything.” The plaza boss has explicitly expressed concern about El Mayito’s return to Mexico and his interest in Durango.
• As El Mayito is number two in charge of this CdS faction, the only individual who ranks higher would be his father, Ismael Zambada aka El Mayo. More explicitly, the only person who would have the authority to call El Mayito off from an activity he’s engaging with would be his father.
• A couple of local business owners who have dealt with El Mayito previously have expressed concern to our sources about his tactics and the way he handles his business relationships.
• At least one has said that if El Mayito or men working in his interest come to him, he would sell off his business entirely rather than deal with “those guys from Durango.”

Broader context of El Mayito’s return

• The Sinaloa Cartel is currently experiencing internal splintering with factions and supporters splitting between those who support Los Chapitos, the sons of Joaquin Guzman Loera aka “El Chapo” and those who support Ismael Zambada aka “El Mayo”.
• The Los Chapitos faction is smaller at this time but well-funded and mostly concentrated in the state of Sinaloa.
• The faction led by El Mayo is much larger but is more engaged in the conflict with CJNG in Zacatecas which is eating away significantly at resources. This faction is more concentrated in Durango, and part of Chihuahua and Sonora.
• Ismael Zambada aka El Mayo is the visible head of CdS in Mexico. He is an experienced leader and maintains relationships with Mexican government officials and is widely respected by lower echelons of the CdS in Durango as well as mid-level CdS leadership in other states.
• The faction that supports him, and the faction led by Los Chapitos are maintaining a fragile truce at the time of this memo in the face of fighting CJNG aggression in Zacatecas.
• This truce is particularly fragile as El Mayito returns because it is widespread knowledge that El Mayito collaborated with US officials in the trial against El Chapo to decrease his sentence. Therefore, Los Chapitos hold a notable grudge against him.
• The Zambada faction needs significant resources to manage any potential escalation in its confrontation with Los Chapitos and their faction, along with the all out turf war against the CJNG in Zacatecas.

This need for resources, and recent engagements of El Mayito in Durango are an indication that at some point in the coming months Ismael and Vicente Zambada could require, and demand, more resources from businesses in Durango.