The arrest of Ovidio Guzmán and splits in the Sinaloa Cartel

On 5 January 2023 the Mexican Army arrested Ovidio Guzmán, son of the infamous Joaquín Guzmán (El Chapo), and a powerful figure in the country’s largest and longest standing Cártel de Sinaloa (CDS) organized crime group. The arrest took place just two days before a visit by the US President Joe Biden to Mexico, leading several analysts to state his arrest was a “gift” to the US government.

Immediately after Ovidio Guzmán was taken into custody, Culiacan, the Sinaloa state capital, erupted in violence with dozens of roadblocks and arsons involving hundreds of armed criminals, resulting in the death of 10 soldiers and 19 gang members.

Such a nightmarish scenario was merely a replay of a previous arrest of Ovidio Guzmán in October 2019. On that occasion the authorities released him after his men literally put Culiacan under siege, taking dozens of soldiers and state policemen as hostages.

The scale of violence following Ovidio Guzmán’s latest arrest reflects the CDS’s firepower. However, this massive show of force may be a sign of desperation. The CDS is currently split, with a frail alliance held between the so-called Los Chapos, led by the sons of the US-incarcerated El Chapo, and Los Mayos, helmed by Ismael Zambada García (El Mayo) and his children. Southern Pulse investigates how this split emerged and what Ovidio Guzmán’s arrest means for the Los Chapos’ wing of the cartel.

Size and power

According to a document from the US Congressional Research Archive, the CDS is considered “Mexico’s most enduring criminal organization” and “frequently regarded as the most powerful drug trafficking syndicate in the Western Hemisphere.”

In its 2020 National Drug Threat Assessment, the US Drug Enforcement Agency states that the CDS “maintains the most expansive international footprint compared to other Mexican TCOs (Transnational Criminal Organizations).” In 2019, its estimated income was USD14 billion.

Origin

Since the 1950s, several family groups from the mountainous area between the states of Sinaloa, Durango and Chihuahua (known as the Golden Triangle) have trafficked marijuana and opium from northwest Mexico into the US.

In 1977, a handful of drug clans with considerable capital, logistics and political connections fled military operations in the Golden Triangle and moved to the city of Guadalajara, in the state of Jalisco.

The leaders of these families were Rafael Caro Quintero, Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo and Miguel Ángel Felix Gallardo. This was the beginning of the Guadalajara Cartel. In its time the most efficient and powerful in Mexico.

In 1984, the founders of the Guadalajara Cartel brokered an agreement with the heads of other drug trafficking organizations. The city of Tijuana was handed to the Arellano Felix brothers (Cartel de Tijuana), while the city of Ciudad Juárez was given to Amado Carrillo (Cartel de Juárez). Both cities are key US border crossing points.

The Pacific coast corridor was given to Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo), Ismael Zambada García (El Mayo) and José Esparragoza Moreno (El Azul), Héctor Palma Salazar and the Beltrán Leyva brothers. This was the beginning of the CDS.

Turf wars

The CDS would eventually become the only one of these cartels to survive as a major player in Mexico’s organized criminal landscape. In April 1985, the Cártel de Guadalajara’s Caro Quintero and Fonseca were both arrested. Their other partner, Gallardo, was arrested in 1989, with which the Cártel de Guadalajara ceased to exist.

That same year the then newly independent CDS and the Cartel de Tijuana began a turf war. Eventually the CDS got the upper hand as the Arellano Felix brothers were successively arrested and their organization was confined to the city of the same name.

In the following years, the CDS engaged in simultaneous territorial wars. Some of the first against the Cártel de Juárez in 1997; against its former allies, the Beltrán Leyva brothers in 2008; and against another criminal group, Los Zetas in 2010. Each time the rival groups eventually lost their leaders through death or arrest and became confined to smaller territories.

However, the CDS would eventually suffer setbacks of its own. In 2010, the CDS Jalisco state head, Ignacio Coronel, was killed by the Army. His successor, Nemesio Oseguera, formed the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), and went on to launch an all out war against his former CDS allies. This turf war continues today in the states of Chihuahua, Colima, Durango, Jalisco, Nayarit and Zacatecas.

Resilience

There are two reasons for the CDS’ resilience to date. The first is its avoidance of direct confrontations with the federal authorities. One of the ways it achieves this is through bribing or threatening state and federal authorities en masse. The cartel reportedly has dozens of medium rank officials from the Army and Navy on its payroll, and hundreds of state police troopers from at least 10 states. The mass violence against government security following the arrest of Ovidio Guzmán has been the exception, not the norm.

The second reason for its resilience has been the flexibility of its shared leadership. Until 2016 the leadership of the cartel was a triumvirate led by Joaquín Guzmán (El Chapo), Juan Esparragoza (El Azul), and Ismael Zambada (El Mayo). The structure for many years proved to be a good way to share power.

Succession struggle at the top

However, following the rearrest of El Chapo in 2016 (he escaped from Mexican prisons in 2001 and 2015), the cartel’s cohesion and leadership structure has begun to degrade. On one side are Los Mayos, led by the sons of the aging El Mayo, 75, whose whereabouts have not been disclosed for at least two decades. The second member of the triumvirate, El Azul, is increasingly associated with this grouping. Mexican and US authorities are uncertain whether El Azul is dead or alive. On the other side are the sons of the incarcerated El Chapo, Los Chapos.

The differences between the two factions have been evident in changes of tactics. Los Mayos continue to remain out of the spotlight and follow their father’s strategy of trying to avoid confrontation with the authorities. Meanwhile, Los Chapos appear to enjoy public exposure and their henchmen are often unnecessarily violent.

Currently these two CDS factions hold an unsteady alliance wrought with tension and in-fighting. This alliance holds primarily out of the need to join forces to face the CJNG. However, the arrest of Ovidio Guzmán, who was the de facto leader of his brothers, could be a severe blow to the Los Chapos faction. This is not necessarily a blow Los Mayos will directly exploit, but the temptation for El Mayo and his heirs to sit back and watch Los Chapos burn may be too great to resist. If this occurs, it remains to be seen whether Los Mayos can absorb the rival faction, or will lose it to the CJNG instead.

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