Regional Pulse: May 2022

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A monthly review of need-to-know events curated by the Southern Pulse team for people who work in Latin America. Looking for something more tailored to your needs? Let’s chat.

Key Events

• Chile: The Constitutional Convention finishes its first draft.
• Colombia: Crime group AGC paralyzes multiple regions after leader extradited to the US.
• Colombia: Former guerrilla Gustavo Petro faces businessman Rodolfo Hernández in the presidential runoff.
• Costa Rica: President Chaves says country at war with Conti ransomware group.
• Ecuador: Latest deadly prison riot accentuates rising gang violence.
• El Salvador: News site El Faro reports recent spike in violence was caused by breakdown in negotiations between gang leaders and Bukele administration.
• Haiti / Dominican Republic: Haitian gang kidnaps Dominican diplomat.
• Mexico: AMLO threatens to snub the Summit of the Americas.
• Peru: President Castillo reshuffles his cabinet, again.
• Venezuela: The US rolls back some Trump-era sanctions against Cuba and Venezuela.

Event: The Constitutional Convention finishes its first draft in Chile.

Summary

The Constitutional Convention, the body tasked with writing the new constitution, has finalized the first complete draft. It will now fine-tune it ahead of a 4 September referendum on its approval.

With 499 articles (the world’s longest), the new constitution makes higher education free, requires gender parity across all levels of government, eliminates the senate in favor of a single-chamber legislature, and makes the state responsible for tackling climate change. It will also for the first time offer constitutional recognition to Chile’s indigenous population.

Why it matters

The latest polling suggests 46% of Chileans will reject the new constitution compared with the 38% ready to vote in its favor. Getting the first draft across the line may improve these numbers — a request by the Convention in March to extend the drafting deadline was poorly received by many voters, according to polls. However, the new constitution’s supporters still have their work cut out if they want the final document to be approved. Groups opposing the new constitution have been campaigning on social media for months, sometimes spreading disinformation about its content.

Event: Colombian crime group AGC paralyzes multiple regions after leader extradited to US.

Summary

The Gulf Clan, or self-dubbed AGC (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia), arguably Colombia’s largest criminal group, imposed five days of armed curfew and violence on over 100 municipalities. Civilians were threatened with “unfavorable” reprisals if they left their house or opened their place of business. Over 180 vehicles were burned and multiple towns ran low on food and natural gas. Officials estimate three civilians and five members of the security forces were murdered and over 190 violent events took place. However, figures from the Special Jurisdiction for Peace put the toll much higher, with over a dozen murdered civilians and 300 plus violent events.

The armed curfew began on 4 May immediately after Dairo Antonio Úsuga David, aka Otoniel, was extradited to the US on organized crime and drugs charges. Otoniel was the AGC’s leader and Colombia’s most-wanted trafficker until his arrest in October 2021.

The criminal group released a statement on 9 May declaring the end of the curfew, although violent events and clashes with security forces persist in some areas. The man who ordered the curfew is Jovanis de Jesús Ávila Villadiego, aka Chiquito Malo, who replaced Otoniel as leader of the AGC.

Why it matters

The AGC has not only made a powerful show of force, but demonstrated its expansion. Many of the areas under curfew had, according to the government, been “recovered” from criminal control following the 2016 peace accord. These include major cities like Monteria and even parts of Medellín.

Security metrics have worsened in the past few years. These latest developments may foreshadow a reorganization of armed groups and herald a new cycle of armed conflict in the country.

Event: Former guerrilla Gustavo Petro faces businessman Rodolfo Hernández in the presidential runoff in Colombia.

Summary

Senator, ex guerrilla and former mayor of Bogotá, Petro, and former mayor of Bucaramanga, Hernández, got the biggest shares of votes in the 29 May presidential election, with 40.3% and 28.2% respectively. Voter turnout was 54%, similar to 2018 figures.

Why it matters

Petro’s win did not come as a surprise. He has consistently led opinion polls with a leftist manifesto focused on tackling inequality and corruption. Some of his promises include pension redistribution, free higher education, and the full implementation of the 2016 peace deal with FARC, as well as peace talks with ELN guerrillas.

Hernández making it to the run-off was a surprise. He rose in the polls just two weeks before the elections. His breakthrough has been partly attributed to his strong social media presence. Campaign pledges include strengthening law and order, creating new jobs and cracking down on corruption, despite facing allegations of graft of his own.

Event: President Chaves says Costa Rica is at war with Conti ransomware group.

Summary

A Conti ransomware attack has disabled 27 government agencies including the Finance Ministry and the Labor Ministry since April. The ransomware group behind the attack stated its intent was to overthrow the government by means of a cyberattack. It urged Costa Rican citizens to pressure their government into paying the ransom, which has doubled from USD10 million to USD20 million.

After declaring a national emergency on 8 May (the same day he was sworn in), President Chaves said Conti had operators in Costa Rica and called on international allies to help. The US government has offered a bounty of up to USD10 million for information that could identify or locate the attack’s main coordinators.

Why it matters

Costa Rica is the latest Latin American country targeted with Conti ransomware. Other victims include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic and Honduras. The paralysis these incidents are causing is becoming increasingly serious, underlining the need for governments across the region to invest in strong cybersecurity defenses.

Event: Haitian gang kidnaps Dominican diplomat

Summary

Agricultural counselor to the Dominican embassy in Haiti, Guillen Tatis, has been released four days after being kidnapped by 400 Mawozo criminal gang in the Croix-des-Bouquets neighborhood of the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince. Tatis was on his way to the Dominican border crossing when he was kidnapped. It is unclear if the country paid the USD500,000 demanded by 400 Mawozo for his safe return.

The Dominican government has demanded Haiti investigate the matter. It has also increased its military presence along their shared border.

Why it matters

The kidnapping will deepen Haiti’s isolation from its wealthier neighbor. The Dominican Republic has recently begun constructing a border fence to control migration and crime.

The incident also underlines Haiti’s slide toward becoming a failed state. Over 20 criminal groups currently control sizable parts of the country and its capital. Fighting among gangs has left over 20,000 people displaced. Documented cases of kidnappings by criminal groups tallied 1,009 in 2021 (including 81 foreign nationals). Up from 796 in 2020. The true figures are likely far higher.

Event: Latest deadly prison riot accentuates rising gang violence in Ecuador.

Summary

At least 44 inmates have been killed in a prison riot in Santo Domingo on 9 May. Around 220 inmates managed to escape, although 150 have since been recaptured. The riot was reportedly caused by the relocation of an R7 gang leader which rival gang Los Lobos blamed for the death of 20 prisoners in April. Both gangs have been embroiled in a bloody conflict that has spilled over across multiple prisons.

Why it matters

An estimated 364 inmates have been killed in six separate prison riots since February 2021. Ecuador’s biggest gangs are run from its prisons and have been at war since late 2020. Increased drug trafficking and arms trade, evidenced by a rising trend in seizures, has boosted criminal violence in the country.

This growth in criminality has contributed to prison overpopulation, which is likely a factor behind the riots. The Santo Domingo prison was overpopulated by 76% before receiving the new inmates, who came from another overpopulated prison that had just seen a riot.

President Guillermo Lasso has instituted various states of emergency in response and called for a “Plan Ecuador,” emulating the counterinsurgent US-backed Plan Colombia. However, although budgets have risen and the military has been deployed, prisons are still controlled by gangs. This latest riot is unlikely to be the last and underlines the government’s apparent inability to control the situation.

Event: News site El Faro reports recent spike in violence was caused by a breakdown in negotiations between gang leaders and Bukele administration

Summary

El Faro has published a new report based on audio recordings between government officials and gang leaders. The report suggests a breakdown in negotiations between MS-13 gang leaders and the government of President Nayib Bukele caused a spike in violence in March.

El Faro reported that the breakdown of the pact began when several gang members were arrested after traveling in a government vehicle.

Why it matters

The report is further evidence of a secret pact between gangs and the Bukele administration — something the government denies. It will also test a new law punishing media organizations that reproduce messages from criminal groups. El Faro’s reporters could face up to 15 years in prison if the government decides to press charges in retaliation.

Event: Mexico’s President AMLO threatens to snub the Summit of the Americas.

Summary

Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador has said he will not attend the Summit of the Americas if the US does not invite Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.

As host nation, the US has not invited the three countries due to their human rights record and authoritarian governments.

Some Caribbean nations have also said they may skip the summit if Cuba is not invited. The presidents of Brazil, Bolivia and Honduras have made similar threats for different reasons.

Why it matters

The Summit of the Americas has been held every three to four years since 1994. This iteration is supposed to be centered around migration, trade agreements and cooperation amid rising inflation and pandemic-induced good shortages. However, threats by Brazil and Mexico to avoid the event risk overshadowing discussions. Consequently, the summit is fast becoming a test of US influence in Latin America which has been — by some accounts — less of a priority for President Joe Biden. He has been criticized for leaving embassies understaffed and for failing to meet with many of the region’s presidents. This has not been missed by China, which has mocked the host’s lack of inclusion while pushing for increased influence and investment in the region.

Event: President Castillo reshuffles his cabinet, again.

Summary

President Castillo replaced his interior minister, energy minister, agriculture minister, and transport and communication minister on 22 May.

The latest cabinet reshuffle comes amid declining approval numbers, public turmoil over inflation and fresh corruption allegations. Castillo has already faced two impeachment attempts.

Why it matters

Vladimir Cerrón, the leader of Castillo’s Peru Libre party, said these changes were made without consulting the party. This points to both Castillo’s growing isolation and his abandonment by former allies. The Peruvian president’s time in office looks increasingly likely to end before 2022 is over.

Event: The US rolls back some Trump-era sanctions against Cuba and Venezuela.

Summary

The Biden administration announced plans to lift some oil-related restrictions to incentivize President Nicolás Maduro to resume talks with the opposition. The US has also facilitated talks about potential future drilling between US-oil company Chevron and the Maduro administration.

The Biden administration announced new policies for Cuba too. The US will now allow increased remittance flows, select US travel to Cuba, and greater access to US visas for Cubans.

Why it matters

The changes mark an end to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” approach of sanctions and diplomatic isolation. This approach has seen little success. with the two countries’ authoritarian regimes still firmly in place and their people no better off.

President Joe Biden’s policy shift could also be an attempt at preventing an embarrassing boycott of the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles. A dozen countries, including Mexico, have threatened not to attend the summit if Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are not invited. The three countries have been excluded from the summit because their leaders were not democratically-elected.