Regional Pulse: 23 August 2022
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Our weekly review of need-to-know events curated by the Southern Pulse team for people who work in Latin America. Looking for something more tailored to your needs? Let’s chat.
Key developments
ARGENTINA
- Drug trafficking linked to recent murders in Rosario
- IMF-backed subsidy cuts to affect millions
BRAZIL
- President’s poll numbers creep up
- Elite signal support for new electoral court president
- Bolsonaro urges supporters to protest electoral system on 7 September
CHILE
- Mapuche extremists burn more forestry equipment
COLOMBIA
- Energy minister backtracks and says future O&G contracts are not suspended
- Country led GDP growth worldwide in second trimester
ECUADOR
- New Petro Ecuador president to double oil production
- Ecuador aims to sign free trade deal with China this year
- Referendum plans announced amid rising security concerns
MEXICO
- Truth commission says Ayotzinapa massacre was a “State crime”
- NGO says record number of journalists murdered this year
- Security forces make 200+ arrests following week of violence
PERU
- Defense Minister becomes latest cabinet member to resign
- Food insecurity on the rise
ARGENTINA
Drug trafficking linked to recent murders in Rosario
On 17 August 2022, national newspaper Página 12 reported that the city of Rosario registered five murders between the 12 and 14 August, including an attack on a vehicle belonging to the Argentine Federal Penitentiary Service. Investigators believe the crimes are linked to drug trafficking, particularly the production and distribution of synthetic drugs. According to crime NGO Observatorio de Política Criminal, inaction by local police is playing a role in the increase of criminal activity in and around the port city.
IMF-backed subsidy cuts to affect millions
On 16 August 2022, government officials announced subsidy cuts affecting electricity, gas, and water bills as part of efforts to meet a 2.5% primary fiscal deficit target agreed with the IMF in return for debt restructuring. Last year, the government spent almost USD11 billion to sustain artificially low utility prices. Some citizens could see price hikes as high as 167%, and around 4 million households are likely to be affected.
BRAZIL
President’s poll numbers creep up
On 18 August 2022, according to an opinion poll for the upcoming October presidential election released by Datafolha, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) had 47% of the vote while incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) had 32% of the vote. Since June, Lula’s polling numbers have remained stable at around 47%, but President Bolsonaro’s has seen his support grow from around 27% to 32% over the same period. Datafolha’s numbers are consistent with polls conducted by Quaest and FSB-BTG, also released last week.
Elite signal support for new electoral court president
On 17 August 2022, Justice Alexandre de Moraes assumed the presidency of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at an unusually high-profile inauguration that was attended by all the top presidential candidates and President Jair Bolsonaro. Additionally, the event included the leaders of the legislative and judiciary branches, all living and able former presidents, foreign diplomats, and other regional figures. Analysts from TV Globo argued that the presence of so many important political figures at the ceremony shows the political class strongly supports the country’s electoral institutions, despite repeated attacks by President Bolsonaro against it.
Bolsonaro urges supporters to protest electoral system on 7 September
On 16 August 2022, President Jair Bolsonaro used social media platforms such as Telegram to call upon right-wing groups to use independence celebrations on 7 September 2022 to stage protests against the electoral system. President Bolsonaro has repeatedly attacked the country’s electoral voting system, citing fraud concerns ahead of the general elections this October.
CHILE
Mapuche extremists burn more forestry equipment
On 16 August 2022, Mapuche extremists incinerated 17 pieces of forestry machinery and intimidated forestry workers in Arauco and Curanilahue, located in the southern Biobío region. The armed men also left pamphlets demanding the release of Mapuche political prisoners. The southern Biobío region is part of the southern macro zone which is currently under a constitutional state of exemption. Discussions on whether to extend the state of exemption have been a heated topic in Congress as attacks on forestry companies persist.
COLOMBIA
Energy minister backtracks and says future gas contracts are not suspended
On 18 August 2022, Mining and Energy Minister Irene Vélez retracted her previous statements saying Colombia would no longer sign new extraction or exploration contracts for oil and gas, and insisted gas was in fact necessary to accelerate a transition towards renewable energy. However, she reiterated renewable energy remained her priority, and that the country will look to maintain its natural gas self-sufficiency. Vélez had previously said the country would import gas from Venezuela rather than sign new contracts if shortages arose.
Country led GDP growth worldwide in second trimester
On 16 August 2022, the National Statistics Department reported that GDP grew by 12.6% year-on-year in the second trimester of 2022. No other economy worldwide grew at a faster rate during this time period. Artistic, entertainment, and recreational activities saw the largest growth along with commerce and the manufacturing industry.
ECUADOR
New Petro Ecuador president to double oil production
On 18 August 2022, Hugo Aguiar became the president of the state-owned energy company Petro Ecuador, promising to more than double oil production to 1 million barrels per day by 2025. His targets are in line with President Guillermo Lasso’s plans to revamp the country’s oil production infrastructure by modernizing the Esmeraldas refinery on the coast and reopening 1,000 oil fields in the Amazon region.
Government aims to sign free trade deal with China this year
On 17 August 2022, the Minister of Production and Trade, Julio José Padro, said the government plans to sign a free trade agreement with China by December, when the country will host the 15th China-Latin America and Caribbean Summit in Guayaquil. China became the country’s largest trading partner this year, surpassing the US. China’s trade volume with Latin America as a whole reached over USD450 billion in 2021 — an increase of 41% relative to 2020.
Referendum plans announced amid rising security concerns
On 16 August 2022, the Lasso administration announced that it will hold a national referendum with 10 questions related to public safety following a string of bomb blasts blamed on warring drug groups. The referendum’s questions will include legal reform and institutional responsibility. In 2022 alone, there have been over 140 attacks with homemade, highly lethal explosives, some of which have killed civilians. About 70% of these attacks occurred in the nation’s largest city and economic center, Guayaquil, where five people were killed in a brutal attack last week.
MEXICO
Truth commission says Ayotzinapa massacre was a “State crime”
On 18 August 2022, the Commission for Truth and Access to Justice determined the mass kidnapping and disappearance of 43 students in Ayotzinapa in 2014 was a “State crime”. The commission’s report found security forces worked with the Guerreros Unidos cartel to murder and hide the students’ remains. Various officials and judicial entities were also allegedly involved in the cover up and 83 people, including former Attorney General Jesús Murillo Karam, will stand trial for the massacre. The report adds that another 26 people have been murdered since investigations began in an attempt to cover up the truth. The students had been protesting state violence in Iguala, Guerrero.
NGO says record number of journalists murdered this year
On 18 August 2022, UK-based freedom of speech NGO Article 19 reported 2022 as the deadliest year for journalists in Mexico, with 18 murders in the first semester. The report says the State remains the lead aggressor and is responsible for 128 out of 331 cases of aggression.
Security forces make 200+ arrests following week of violence
On 15 August 2022, security forces reported the capture of 207 people involved in violence earlier this month which saw warring cartel factions kill rivals, incinerate vehicles and burn stores in Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan, Chihuahua, and Baja California In Michoacan. Military officials said that 167 of the 207 arrests involved members of the self-defense group Pueblos Unidos. They added these arrests prevented an imminent, large-scale confrontation between Pueblos Unidos and organized crime group Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación.
PERU
Defense Minister becomes latest cabinet member to resign
On 17 August 2022, Defense Minister José Luis Gavidia resigned, becoming the twelfth high-profile member to leave President Pedro Castillo’s cabinet in a little over a year. Gavidia cited personal reasons for stepping down, but his departure came a week after his wife, María Amelia Valdivieso Arrascue, was accused of obtaining illegal government concessions for her private business. Castillo’s government has been plagued by multiple accusations of corruption over the past few months.
Food insecurity on the rise
On 17 August 2022, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted that over half of the country’s population will be suffering from food insecurity by the end of 2022. In 2021 an estimated 15.5 million citizens had restricted access to food; in 2022, that number is expected to reach 16.6 million. The main factors driving food insecurity were supply shortages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
